Even with the RHI, ASHP's don't stack up against Nat gas.
Our advice to everyone is Insulate, Insulate, Insulate.
For an ASHP to get a CoP of >3 you need to run either ufh or rads at less than 45°, to run rads at that temp you need them to be sized 3x larger than normally required.
The gudelines on sizing heatpumps and emitters is both clear and comprehensive - you can download it all from the MCS website.
When you add in the costs of ugrading the rads it will never add up against Nat Gas, we are struggling to make a financial benefit to clients even when that are on oil.
For oil, the most sensible Green option is a Biomass boiler.
The RHI payments are open to anyone on or off gas grid - there are no restrictions, however they have been set at a level such that an effcient Nat Gas boiler will be the cheapest option, DECC are desparate to avoid a green rush away from gas, hence the payments are designed to make OFF gas grid people CONSIDER a green alternative when their boiler needs replacing, not as a wholesale green update. - They've learned from over generous PV FiT payments!
Also see this paper why buffer stores are essential on any form of heat pump (I now it relates to biomass, the same principle on sizing applies though)
ctc810-insights-into-biomass-heat-installations.pdf
Net effect you'll put an ASHP in to a on-grid property because you want to... however you need a CoP of much > 2.5 to really be greener than nat gas...
See here for the deemed CoP's at various output temps:
http://www.microgenerationcertifica...y_Information_2_-_Heat_Emitter_Guide_v2.0.pdf
See this for the actual EST field trial results of ASHP's as installed : [DLMURL]http://www.energysavingtrust.org.uk/content/download/80377/973482/version/2/file/The+Heat+is+On+web.pdf[/DLMURL]